Vermont Legislative Apportionment Board

DRAFT WORK IN PROGRESSCreated by VCGI for the Legislative Apportionment Board.


Chart: Distribution of House District Populations

Estimated % deviation from 'ideal' population (4,162 per member) based on composite population estimate.

Table: House District Population Estimates & Projected Deviation from 2020 Ideal


Table: Senate District Population Estimates & Projected Deviation from Ideal

Estimated Ideal population is 21,164 per Senator based on composite population estimate.

Note: The 2010-2019 line graph shows the 2010 Census population, the 2014-2018 ACS 5-Year estimate as a middle value, and the 2019 composite estimate averaging the ACS and ESRI 2020 estimates described below. Ideal is 21,164 x number of members.

Data Downloads & Methodology

Population estimates used are a composite using American Community Survey 2015-2019 (5-year) and ESRI population projections for July 1, 2020 (June 2020 release). ESRI's methodology paper notes, "To measure current population change by block group, Esri models the change in households from multiple sources: Experian; the US Postal Service (USPS); Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company; and Axiometrics, in addition to several ancillary sources." ESRI's estimates are made at the Census block group level and were aggregated or apportioned to the House and Senate districts. The '2019' estimates on this page are an average of the ACS 2019 5-year and ESRI 2020 numbers.

PLEASE NOTE: These estimates have relatively high margins-of-error and actual 2020 Census counts could differ significantly in some areas. Redistricting data files and geography products are typically delivered in March of 2021, however delays may be possible.